Economics
New Zealand Commodity Prices Experience Largest Monthly Decline Since 2022
New Zealand's commodity prices saw a significant decline in July, primarily driven by a 6.5% drop in dairy prices. The ANZ World Commodity Price Index fell by 3.9% month-on-month, marking the largest decrease since November 2022, although it remains up 0.5% year-on-year. This decline reflects a seasonal adjustment as supply ramps up ahead of the new season, alongside broader market volatility.
Dairy prices lead the drop as the ANZ World Commodity Price Index falls 3.9% in July.
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Executive summary
New Zealand's commodity prices saw a significant decline in July, primarily driven by a 6.5% drop in dairy prices. The ANZ World Commodity Price Index fell by 3.9% month-on-month, marking the largest decrease since November 2022, although it remains up 0.5% year-on-year. This decline reflects a seasonal adjustment as supply ramps up ahead of the new season, alongside broader market volatility.
The ANZ World Commodity Price Index recorded a 3.9% decrease in July, the most substantial monthly fall since November 2022. The decline is largely attributed to a 6.5% drop in dairy prices, which are now down 11.3% year-on-year. Whole milk powder prices fell by 5.3% as global supply pressures weighed on the market. Despite this, casein prices rose by 28.2% year-on-year, indicating strong demand for high-value protein ingredients.
The meat and fibre index also saw a decline of 3.0% month-on-month, marking its first drop since May 2025. Wool prices fell 12.0% but remain significantly higher year-on-year, while beef prices decreased by 4.4% amid competition from South American exporters, although the beef index is still up 16.5% year-on-year.
In contrast, the horticulture index rose by 2.1%, driven by increasing gold kiwifruit prices, while the forestry index increased by 0.7% month-on-month, supported by improved shipping conditions. Aluminium prices fell by 8.2% due to reduced Middle Eastern production, although they remain up 21.0% year-on-year.
The NZD Commodity Price Index fell by 4.0% month-on-month, despite only a marginal increase in the New Zealand dollar. Analysts at ANZ caution that a stronger currency could pose additional challenges for commodity price competitiveness moving forward.
Market impact
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NIC · Impact scores
Global: 64 · Market: 65 · Urgency: 50 · Confidence: 90 · Neutral
Themes: inflation, geopolitics, precious_metals
Asset impact
- Gold — Bearish (55) · Gold leans bearish based on headline/body drivers.
- USD — Bullish (55) · USD leans bullish based on headline/body drivers.
- US Stocks — Neutral (55) · US Stocks mentioned with balanced cues.
- Indices — Neutral (55) · Indices mentioned with balanced cues.
- Commodities — Neutral (55) · Commodities mentioned with balanced cues.
- Forex — Neutral (55) · Forex mentioned with balanced cues.
Market reaction
- XAUUSD: 4078.375 → 4078.375 (0%) · T-15m / T0 / T+15m / T+60m
- DXY: Price snapshot pending · T-15m / T0 / T+15m / T+60m
- SPX: Price snapshot pending · T-15m / T0 / T+15m / T+60m
- US30: Price snapshot pending · T-15m / T0 / T+15m / T+60m
- DJP: Price snapshot pending · T-15m / T0 / T+15m / T+60m
- FX: Price snapshot pending · T-15m / T0 / T+15m / T+60m
Trading insight
Analysis only. Not a trade signal. Not investment advice. No Entry/TP/SL is generated by NIC.
Scenarios
- Two-way reaction likely until the market digests the data surprise vs forecast.
- Whipsaw risk is elevated inside the first 15–60 minutes after release.
- For XAUUSD, map USD/rate impulse first, then confirm direction on M15 structure.
Watch factors
- Actual vs forecast surprise (priced-in risk)
- USD / yields impulse if macro-sensitive
- Liquidity and spread during the news window
- Follow-through after T+15m / T+60m
- Relative reaction in gold
- Relative reaction in usd
- Relative reaction in us_stocks
- Relative reaction in indices
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